New Delhi (NVI): The coronavirus pandemic is expected to wipe out 6.7 per cent of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020, according to a report by International Labor Organization (ILO).
The United Nations’ labor agency said this would be the equivalent of 195 million full-time workers.
Large reductions are foreseen in the Arab States (8.1 per cent, equivalent to 5 million full-time workers), Europe (7.8 per cent, or 12 million full-time workers) and Asia and the Pacific (7.2 per cent, 125 million full-time workers).
The UN agency said the eventual increase in global unemployment in 2020 depended on how quickly the economy could recover in the second half of the year and how effective policy measures were in boosting labor demand.
Since the ILO published its preliminary assessment, it said cases of COVID-19 infection had risen six times.
Huge losses are expected across different income groups but especially in upper-middle income countries (7.0 per cent, 100 million full-time workers).
The agency has also said that this far exceeds the effects of the 2008-9 financial crisis.
The sectors most at risk include accommodation and food services, manufacturing, retail, and business and administrative activities.
There is a high risk that the end-of-year figure will be significantly higher than the initial ILO projection, of 25 million.
More than four out of five people (81 per cent) in the global workforce of 3.3 billion are currently affected by full or partial workplace closures.
“Workers and businesses are facing catastrophe, in both developed and developing economies,” said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder. “We have to move fast, decisively, and together. The right, urgent, measures, could make the difference between survival and collapse.”
The ILO described the coronavirus as the “worst crisis since World War II.”
According to the new study, 1.25 billion workers are employed in the sectors identified as being at high risk of “drastic and devastating” increases in layoffs and reductions in wages and working hours.
Many are in low-paid, low-skilled jobs, where a sudden loss of income is devastating.
Looked at regionally, the proportion of workers in these “at risk” sectors varies from 43 per cent in the US to 26 per cent in Africa. Some regions, particularly Africa, have higher levels of informality, which combined with a lack of social protection, high population density and weak capacity, pose severe health and economic challenges for governments, the report cautions.
Worldwide, 2 billion people work in the informal sector (mostly in emerging and developing economies) and are particularly at risk.
The UN agency reiterated the need for large-scale, integrated policy measures to help combat the economic threat of the virus, but added that there was a need for immediate support for those working in the most affected sectors.
“This is the greatest test for international cooperation in more than 75 years,” said Ryder. “If one country fails, then we all fail. We must find solutions that help all segments of our global society, particularly those that are most vulnerable or least able to help themselves.”
“The choices we make today will directly affect the way this crisis unfolds and so the lives of billions of people,” he added. “With the right measures we can limit its impact and the scars it leaves. We must aim to build back better so that our new systems are safer, fairer and more sustainable than those that allowed this crisis to happen.”
