New Delhi (NVI): The coronavirus pandemic, which has brought the entire world to a standstill, could result in the largest fall this year in the global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since World War-II, according to a network of scientists examining emissions data.
Rob Jackson, chair of the Global Carbon Project, which produces widely-watched annual emissions estimates, said carbon dioxide output could fall by more than 5 per cent year-on-year, the first dip since a 1.4% reduction after the 2008 financial crisis, according to World Economic Forum (WEF) .
“I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 5% or more drop in carbon dioxide emissions this year, something not seen since the end of World War Two,” said Professor Jackson of Stanford University of California.
“Neither the fall of the Soviet Union nor the various oil or savings and loan crises of the past 50 years are likely to have affected emissions the way this crisis is,” he added.
While the prediction among a range of new forecasts being produced by climate researchers – represents a tiny sliver of good news in the time of crisis.
The scientists had warned world governments that global emissions must start dropping by 2020 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, according to the WEF.
Experts have also warned that without structural change, the emissions decline caused by COVID-19 could be short-lived and have little impact on the concentrations of carbon dioxide that have accumulated in the atmosphere over decades.
“This drop is not due to structural changes, so as soon as confinement ends, I expect the emissions will go back close to where they were,” said Corinne Le Quéré a scientist at the University of East Anglia.
In a report by WEF, after world greenhouse gas emissions dipped in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, they shot back up a whopping 5.1% in the recovery.
Meanwhile, the pattern of a swift rebound has already begun to play out in China, where emissions fell by an estimated 25 percent as the country closed factories and put in place strict measures on people’s movement to contain the spread of coronavirus earlier this year, but have since returned to a normal range.
A U.N. report published in November last year, found that emissions would have to start falling by an average of 7.6% per year to give the world a viable chance of limiting the rise in average global temperatures to 1.5C.
As well as the economy drop would be more than twice as large as the contraction during the financial crisis, and the largest annual fall in GDP since 1931, barring wartime.
Currently, with governments launching gigantic stimulus packages to stop their economies collapsing, investors are now watching to see how far the United States, and China, the European Union, Japan and others embrace lower-emission energy sources.
However, if there is a decline in emissions in 2020, around 10 to 20 pre cent then it’s not negligible, it’s important, but from a climate changes it would be a small dent if emissions go back to pre-COVID-19 crisis.
