New Delhi (NVI): With the Monsoon set to arrive, India’s official weather forecaster today said the country is expected to receive normal rainfall ranging between 97% and 105% of Long-Period Average (LPA) during the season.
The Monsoon is likely to arrive by June 2 in Kerala, the first state in mainland India to witness the annual seasonal weather condition before it moves northwards to cover the entire country over the next four months.
“The Monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
The Southwest Monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the four homogeneous rainfall is most likely to be normal over Northwest India between 92 to 108% and South Peninsula between 93-107%, it IMD said in a statement.
Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over Northeast India (<95%) and above normal over Central India (>106%), the IMD said.
The Southwest Monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country is most likely to be Above Normal (>106% of LPA).
Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially. Most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the season.
The latest global model forecasts indicate the prevailing neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the possibility of development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the Monsoon season.